Tuesday, April 7, 2009

PREDICTIONS


It is a familiar story.

Someone says the sky is falling. Everyone laughs.

Ibsen put it on stage with "An Enemy of the People."

Spielberg scored his first huge hit with "Jaws."

There's a shark in the water.

No there isn't.

Yes, we've seen it.

No, we depend on happy tourists so it can't be. Relax and have another beer.

Now, this:

L'Aquila, capital of the Abruzzo region, about 100 kilometres north of Rome, bore the brunt of the quake, which struck just after 3.30am. The epicentre was five kilometres beneath the town. Thousands of the city's 60,000 residents, fearing aftershocks, fled their beds and ran into the streets.

150 dead, 1500 injured and tens of thousands homeless.

A seismologist warned everyone who would listen that this tragedy was on its way.

Nobody listened.

Now, that creepy crook who is disguised as the Premier of Italy, Silvio Berlusconi, has flown to the region and, among other things, utterly discounted this warning by a real scientist.

2 comments:

Martino said...

There is a real debate regarding the forecasting of earthquakes and other natural disasters. It's getting to the point where scientists are able to forecast these events, but not with 100% certainty. Do you put out an alert that causes widespread panic (and a possible evacuation) for an event that may not happen, or just let it be?

Anonymous said...

Good points, Martino.
But I'm kind of partial to widespread panic.